Eurovision 2011 prediction

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For last year’s Eurovision song contest I predicted that Lena Meyer-Landrut would win, – and indeed she did. For this year I am not so sure.

I jumped in on the second semifinal of the Eurovision 2011 song contest with Austria and was not impressed. Neither did The Netherlands make an impression. Belgian acapella dont win. Slovakian twins did not quite hit the tone and Ukranian sand painting (sic!) was interesting, but the song not. Moldova was an interesting unusuality – but not particularly good. Pop-nation Sweden energetic electropopish Eric Saade had an alright song – bu his stage-singing sounded out-of-breath. Cypres started out folkish, turning a rockish, but … Bulgaria could have benefitted from Avril Lavigne on the mic. Macedonia was not good. The most amazing with that act was the large screen on the stage background put up by the German hosts. Male-turned-female Israeli former Eurovision winner Dana International reaches not his/her heights with her former effective powerpop winner. Slovenia was not Anastacia. Nice dress though. Romania had a promising verse and an ok chorus, a classic Eurovision shuffle, but probably not a winner, – best so far. Favorited Estonia presented an interesting act. Live singing could have been better. Nice orchestration in the verse. “I love Belarus” was a run-of-the-mill. Latvia brought an electric guitar and sang ok. For Danish “New Tomorrow” an ok, but as with other acts the stage singing was not precise enough, – the front spends his time running around on the stage instead of concentrating of the singing. And singback is silly when the musicians pretend to play on their instruments. Ireland’s Lipstick is the winner this semifinal. Good simplistic song. Yeah. However, the YouTube videos I could find had a muddy sound. During the reprise I heard Bosnia and Herzegovina and that was not a winner.

I didn’t hear the first semifinal, but I heard Norway had great hopes for Haba Haba – not I. It was too conventional. Then better is Haba Haba Sut Sut :-)

I could put my money on classic tenor French Amaury Vassili’s Sognu. He is sufficiently different to stand out. Remembering that that differentness has previously gotten Norway and Finland to win with folk and hard rock. Part of the piece is unfortunately running to popish.

Like last year Google has a forecast and puts Unser Star F??r D??sseldorf Lena again ahead together with Irish Jedward’s Lipstick. While Lena’s Taken by a stranger is an interesting production with non-Eurovisionistic sound the chorus doesn’t really fly high enough. It has gained quite a number of YouTube views. On the other hand one should think that the intimacy of the song disappears on the big live stage. The live performance in connection with the local German Eurovision contest show a bit of this problem.

Danish TV station DR manages a website with voting and find Sweden ahead with 20% of the votes, followed by 12% scoring Irland. Great Britain to me anonymous boy band gets 11% of the votes, Finland 7% and Bosnien-Herzegovina 5%. France gets only 4%. Also Lena gets only 4%. Sweden is way down in Google’s list and the topping on DR must be due to Danes voting for their geographic neighbor, though in terms of YouTube views Sweden has a high number, – indeed surpasses Lena. Finland’s sympathetic song is probably not strong enough to reach the top.

Bookmakers put France on odds 2.5, Irland on 6 and Lena on 22. What a discrepancy between this odds and Google’s predictions. At odds 22 Lena seems really a bargain. Azerbaijan holds the third best odds and 5 on Google.

Concluding: The prediction of Danish online voting, Google, and the bookmakers are not aligned. The most strange aspect is Google’s and bookmaker’s different opinion on Lena. Yet more confused you can get if you start comparing YouTube views. So who should we put most weight on? Initially I thought the French tenor would carry it home easily not quite having heard all songs, but now I am leaning towards the Irish madness. Ireland would also be the choice if we simply aggregate the three independent predictions: Consensus inference is good.

It is two Danes, Lars Halvor Jensen og Martin Michael Larsson, that are behind the Irish bubblegum dance. Last year a Danish composer also won by supplying Lena with the Satellite song.

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